14 APRIL 2021
Poland has been so focused on defending itself from the threats that it believes emanate from Russia that it’s become almost oblivious to the Hybrid War threat posed by Germany, which is arguably among one of the most pressing security concerns for the country considering its ongoing domestic unrest and the grand strategic interests that Berlin has in its outcome.
Manipulating The Polish Mentality
Poland is a proud nation that succeeded in doing the previously unthinkable by rising from the geopolitical ashes and restoring its long-lost sovereignty after 123 years of occupation by three neighboring empires. Its history is very complex and marked by a series of tragedies that have befallen the Polish people in the modern era. It’s therefore understandable why they’re suspicious of some of their larger neighbors, though these deeply rooted concerns are sometimes exploited by external forces for self-interested reasons that aren’t always in Poland’s interests. The perfect example of this in practice is Poland’s focus on defending itself from the threats that it believes emanate from Russia while inadvertently becoming almost oblivious to the Hybrid War threat posed by Germany, which is arguably among the most pressing security concerns right now.
Hybrid War, But From Whom?
The purpose of this piece isn’t to argue about whether Poland’s threat assessment of Russia is legitimate, exaggerated, manipulated, or whatever else, but simply to raise awareness of the fact that Warsaw would be wise to apply a single standard with respect to such threats irrespective of whoever might be responsible for them. Focusing almost solely on Russia in recent years due to regional events has distracted the country’s leadership and many in society from similar Hybrid War threats that ironically come from neighboring Germany. There’s no doubt that the Polish security services take Hybrid War very seriously, but in their desire to safeguard the country from such perceived threats coming from Russia, they’ve ignored the same ones that in some cases might be even worse and more destabilizing whenever they come from Germany.
Poles Or “Europeans”?
To explain, Poland is in the midst of an ever-intensifying intra-Polish struggle between two increasingly polarized camps, the pro-EU liberal-globalists and the pro-sovereignty conservative-nationalists. The first group is comprised of people who don’t even really consider themselves to be “Poles” anymore as much as they see themselves as “Europeans”, while the second are fiercely proud of the Polish identity that their ancestors struggled, sacrificed, and suffered so much to protect. Poland’s membership in the EU was beneficial for the country’s regional political status and greatly improved its economy. Nevertheless, this transnational structure was exploited by some in Brussels for ulterior motives related to their ideological desire to create a superficially more benign Soviet Union that could wrest control of its members’ sovereignty away from their own people.
Germany vs. Poland
The direct consequence of this scheme is that Poland found itself under unprecedented pressure in recent years after its leadership sought to protect its legitimate socio-economic and political interests from perceived threats related to Brussels’ hegemonic demands connected with illegal immigrants (so-called “refugees”), the rule of law, and other sensitive issues. Germany’s role in all of this is obvious since the Central European country acts as the bloc’s unofficial leader and masterfully manipulates its liberal-globalist architecture to serve its own interests at others’ expense. Berlin’s indirect hegemonic bullying via Brussels was preceded by a decades-long shadowy campaign to manipulate the Polish people through German control of their media and politicians. The intent was to gradually erase the Polish people’s identity and replace it with a “European” one.
PiS Spoiled Germany’s Secret Plans
Germany envisioned that the successful outcome of this Hybrid War would result in Poles – who by that point wouldn’t even consider themselves as such but solely as “Europeans” – willingly surrendering the rest of their remaining sovereignty to Berlin-backed Brussels in the interests of “European solidarity” or whatever other euphemistic slogan could be concocted in an attempt to “justify” this. The problem, however, is that Poland’s ruling conservative-nationalist party, PiS, put Polish interests above so-called “European” ones, which in turn prompted Germany to intensify its Hybrid War on Poland by activating its “sleeper cells” in the country. This took the form of the ongoing riotous unrest led by Berlin’s liberal-globalist proxies in the media, politics, and civil society who seek to turn the Hybrid War into an increasingly kinetic conflict in the streets.
Poland’s Hybrid War Nightmare
One of Poland’s worst security nightmares has shockingly come true, and that’s a foreign power having successfully infiltrated all levels of society for so long that it’s now capable of attempting a practical coup against the country. Unlike what most Poles feared, it’s not Russia that’s behind this plot with its so-called “little green men”, but neighboring Germany, which took advantage of Poles’ historical preoccupation with defending themselves from perceived Russian threats to clandestinely subvert national institutions in preparation of what they expected would be their “soft coup”. This Hybrid War is turning kinetic as the “soft” strategy failed due to PiS’ proactive defense of national interests, which prompted Germany to activate its “sleeper cells” in order to continue what Berlin started decades ago after 1989 since its grand strategic plans are now threatened.
German Hybrid War > Russian Hybrid War
The threat posed by the German Hybrid War on Poland is much more dangerous than any that could ever come from Russia. The country’s military alliance with the US serves as a credible deterrent to any so-called “Russian aggression”, and the Polish security services are always on the lookout for any hybrid threats posed by Russia. Germany, however, has succeeded in turning Poles against one another by manipulating their minds through the media and proxy politicians to the point that these fellow citizens no longer even regard themselves as “Poles”. Nevertheless, these “European” Poles are still Polish citizens with Polish rights, and so long as they follow the law, the security services can’t do anything to stop them. This problem went undetected for so long that the country now has millions of “European” Poles dedicated to opposing legitimate national interests.
Towards A EuroMaidan Worst-Case Scenario
The Polish people have therefore been deviously divided by the decades-long German Hybrid War on Poland, and the consequences will likely last for at least several generations. Each side is becoming more zealous in their beliefs as a result of the escalating clashes between their camps. Neither of them is backing down, and both are convinced in the righteousness of their respective causes. Thankfully, Poles are by nature a very peaceful people otherwise the worst-case scenario of EuroMaidan-like chaos might have already occurred. Nevertheless, such a dangerous possibility could still happen since the country is in the midst of what can objectively be described as an ongoing Color Revolution attempt, albeit a comparatively “soft” one than what other countries have experienced in recent years, at least for now.
Reversing The Dynamics
Poland is unable to adequately defend itself both because the problem is so widespread after being identified far too late to nip it in the bud like should have happened decades ago and due to the country’s international legal obligations under the EU. It therefore cannot resort to any so-called “heavy-handed approach”, especially since this would ominously be compared to the onset of the 1980s martial law situation that might subsequently further radicalize the pro-EU liberal-globalists, perhaps even up to the point of them becoming much more violent. That said, if PiS loses upcoming elections and the conservative-nationalists suddenly find themselves in the opposition, then there’s no guarantee that the then-new liberal-globalist government won’t use such means against them if the conservative-nationalists organize their own protests.
The Worst Is Yet To Come
It’s therefore impossible to predict what might happen other than to conclude that the country is caught up in one of its worst-ever historical crises even though few have yet to realize this, let alone its German origins. Poland’s hands are tied for the earlier mentioned reasons, especially since this is literally a struggle of Pole-against-Pole, even if one of the sides doesn’t even consider themselves Poles anymore but sees themselves as “Europeans”. Poles must therefore brace themselves because the worst is yet to come. These intra-Polish tensions won’t go away anytime soon. The best that can happen is that conservative-nationalist Poles are able to convince some of their wayward compatriots of the error of their ways and get them to return to their Polish roots, after which both sides can cordially debate their differences but with respect for national interests.
The present situation is untenable because the Color Revolution can’t legally be contained due to the “European” Poles’ constitutional rights as long as they don’t break the law while protesting. The same can be said about the conservative-nationalist Poles in the event that they suddenly find themselves in the opposition and become the new driving force behind protests. The saddest thing about this situation is that it was entirely avoidable had Poles been more aware of the Hybrid War threats posed by Germany instead of only focusing on the perceived ones emanating from Russia. By concentrating almost exclusively on the East, Poland made itself vulnerable to the same threats coming from the West. If Poland doesn’t win this German Hybrid War, then it’ll lose its sovereignty and cultural independence, thereby becoming its neighbor’s eternal vassal.