GGN MONTHLY GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS:
PERSPECTIVES AND TRENDS:
The August news on geopolitics analyzed by GGN revealed three main trends:
- Actions to contain China’s expansion in strategic geopolitical areas of Asia Pacific and South Asia were increased.
- Tension grew between the countries that have geopolitical interests in the Mediterranean.
- More tension in the Middle East, after Israel and the United Arab Emirates signed an agreement that could modify the balance of power of the region.
Regarding the actions taken during August to contain China’s expansion in Asia Pacific and South Asia, are mentioned: 1) The Five Eyes alliance –US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand– plan to include Japan as a member. 2) India and Japan plan to sign an important military logistics agreement. 3) India and Vietnam agreement to strengthen their strategic partnership. 4) India´s project to support infrastructures plans in Maldives (Maldives has become a focal point for India and China, particularly in the wake of China’s Belt and Road Initiative). 5) Moreover, US sent in August a high level official mission to Taiwan to show them it´s effectively recognition as a sovereign nation.
The results of these countries efforts to contain China are yet to be known.
As for the Mediterranean region, tension grows after various maneuvers carried out by Turkey with the intention of exploiting natural gas in the region. Turkey conducted in August exercises with a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Eastern Mediterranean. In response, Greece launched military exercises jointly with France, Italy and Cyprus in the same zone.
Turkey is planning to create a three-seas link (the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea, named Turkish Silk Road), that could be supported by India, the European Union, and the United States, with anti-Chinese connotations, adding more tension in the region.
Regarding the Middle East, the new deal may radicalize the opposition between the Gulf-Egypt-Israel axis and Iran, as well as between the same axis and Turkey and Qatar. Iran, Qatar, Turkey, and all Palestinian factions already denounced the agreement, declaring that represents a victory for Israel and its ally United States.
The situation in Middle East could get more complicated if Israel and the United States achieve more Arab countries to follow the UAE’s path, as they are already trying to do.
International Relations Analyst