Categories
Geoeconomics

AFRICA:

AFRICA:

  • As the COVID-19 pandemic is worsening the debt crisis in many African countries, China is offering African borrowers debt restructuring to help them survive the crisis. “Chinese banks offered African countries significant debt restructuring before the pandemic and have continued to do so,”

SOURCE: EN PEOPLE


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Geoeconomics

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN GEOECONOMICS? AFRICA:

CHINA´S BELT AND ROAD:

  • Chinese overseas energy finance collapsed to its lowest level since 2008 last year, with its struggling Belt and Road ambitions in the sector relying more heavily on projects in African countries, reported the Financial Times. More than half of China’s $4.6 billion in overseas energy lending went to projects in Africa in 2020, data from Boston University’s Global Energy Finance database show.

SOURCE: CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW


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Geopolitical conflicts

Africa

AFRICA

  • US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visited Africa in a trip aimed in part at pushing back on Russian and Chinese influence in the region.  The US has accused China of seeking to expand its influence in the region via predatory loans and the US military has accused Moscow of deploying Russian mercenaries and fighter jets in Libya.

SOURCE: CNN

 

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terrorism

Africa

AFRICA

  • AFRICA: The Salafi-jihadi movement is already expanding and deepening its presence across Africa, and negative trendlines in key African regions will likely create new opportunities for this spread, according to analysts, that warn that the US is far from prepared for this likely scenario, and that will create opportunities for great-power rivals. Russia and China could use the growing Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa to intervene (in ways that will fuel the Salafi-jihadi trend rather than arrest it).

SOURCE: AEI

 

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Expert Analysis

The Geopolitical Impact Of The ‘Israeli’-Emirati Alliance Will Be Felt In Africa

The Geopolitical Impact Of The ‘Israeli’-Emirati Alliance Will Be Felt In Africa

17 SEPTEMBER 2020IS_AF

 

The misleadingly described “peace” deal between “Israel” and the UAE will enable the self-professed “Jewish State” to use the latter’s military and civilian port infrastructure in the Gulf of Aden, thus challenging recent Turkish inroads in this part of the world and allowing Tel Aviv to project itself as a trans-regional power of significance, especially in East Africa and eventually everywhere else on the continent too.
 

From Diplomatic “Peace” To Military Partnership

Israel” and the UAE finally formalized their hitherto not-so-secret ties earlier this week after agreeing to a misleadingly described “peace” deal brokered by the US. The author recently explained the regional strategic and soft power dividends that the self-professed “Jewish State” hopes to achieve through this development in his piece about how “The US-Brokered Mideast ‘Peace’ Deals Aren’t What They Seem”, so this present piece will therefore discuss its most likely trans-regional geopolitical dividends. The UAE commands a vast empire of military and civilian ports across the world, but the most important jewels in its crown are found in the Gulf of Aden region, specifically in Eritrea, South Yemen (including the strategic Socotra Islands), and the internationally unrecognized Somali breakaway region of Somaliland. It’s therefore predicted that “Israel” will soon have access to these facilities for the purpose of projecting itself as a trans-regional power of significance.

Containing” Turkey

Although Turkey hasn’t withdrawn its decades-long recognition of “Israel”, President Erdogan has recently presented himself as the most high-profile supporter of the Palestinians. He’s also at odds with the UAE since the Gulf State fears his ideological alliance with its Muslim Brotherhood foes, especially those based in nearby Qatar. For this reason, both “Israel” and the UAE have vested interests in “containing” the spread of Turkish influence, which they can attempt to do in East Africa by combining their military and other potential in and around the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint following their mutual recognition of each other. It’s unclear how this would play out in practice, but there’s no denying the impact that a more visible “Israeli” military presence in the UAE’s relevant ports would have on changing the regional narrative in all respects. If anything, it would at the very least boost “Israeli” prestige, both at home and in the targeted region, especially the African hinterland where the self-professed “Jewish State” has been silently expanding its influence over the past decade.

The African Angle

To explain, “Israel” already has considerable influence in East Africa, especially in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda. It naturally follows that it would like to expand its reach to the littoral region along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in order to entrench its influence in this larger space, hence the need for more closely cooperating with the UAE to that end. “Israel” and Eritrea already have relations with one another, but the UAE is the latter’s dominant partner since it uses its territory for waging the War on Yemen. The self-professed “Jewish State” can now “piggyback” on the its official ally’s military gains there to do the same, just like in South Yemen and Somaliland. Taken together, the military dimensions of the “Israeli”-Emirati alliance perfectly complement the diplomatic and economic (agricultural, electrical hydrologicaltelecommunication) influence that it’s already established to solidify its sway. The only “holdouts” are Sudan, which is already under the UAE’s influence after its military coup, tiny Djibouti, and Somalia, the last of which hosts a Turkish base.

Cultivating UN Support On The Continent

“Israel’s” trans-regional strategy with the UAE, using the Gulf of Aden as its springboard for expanding influence into Africa, is therefore twofold. Firstly, it hopes to “contain” Turkish influence in this part of the world, and secondly, it wants to leverage its predicted gains to recruit more diplomatic allies in the UN. That global body’s resolutions are superficial since they lack any enforcement mechanism, but they’re still an impressive soft power tool for shaping perceptions. Since the UAE is becoming more active in the African hinterland, both on its own independent initiative and to counter Turkish influence there, “Israel” hopes to combine their efforts to turn targeted states away from the Turks and towards the “Israeli”-Emirati alliance instead. Incentives such as loans and investments (in the earlier described spheres) could basically buy off corrupt governments there who have little to lose by siding with those two since it’s extremely unlikely that voting in support of “Israel” at the UN will set off a pro-Palestinian Color Revolution anywhere on the continent.

Concluding Thoughts

Many commentators have already extensively discussed the implications of “Israel” and the UAE’s mutual recognition on Mideast geopolitics, but few other than the author have asked what the future holds for Africa in this respect. The UAE is already the predominant power in the interconnected Horn of Africa-Gulf of Aden region, so it naturally follows that its “Israeli” ally will “piggyback” off of gains there to combine them with its existing accomplishments in the East African hinterland. Together, “Israel” and the UAE might pool their efforts in order to seriously challenge Turkish influence on the continent, which has been spreading over the past decade despite most foreign observers being unaware of this fact except when it comes to North Africa. The overarching trend is that foreign powers — which include “Israel”, the UAE, and Turkey, but also the US, France, India, Russia, and China — are increasingly “scrambling” for Africa in order to improve their grand strategic prospects in the emerging Multipolar World Order, and it’s only a matter of time before they clash.

EgjymzKXcAEZe3b 

American political analyst

Tags: Israel, UAE, Turkey, Africa, Horn of Africa, Yemen, South Yemen, Eritrea, Somalia, Somaliland, East Africa.

Categories
terrorism

ASSAULTS

ASSAULTS:

  • BANGLADESH: A bomb went off inside the Pallabi police station, wounding four police officers. The assault was claimed by ISIL, but the government has consistently denied the presence in the country of any transnational armed groups.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/bangladesh-arrests-3-police-station-blast-denies-isil-link-200730085640022.html