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Biden’s Playing Hardball With MBS

2 MARCH 2021

Biden

The promulgation of the US’ so-called “Khashoggi ban” in response to its intelligence agencies determining that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was behind that dissident journalist’s brutal killing shows that the Biden Administration is playing hard ball with the Kingdom’s future ruler, though there’s only so far that it’ll go in this respect since it’s still important for America to still retain some degree of regional strategic “balance” despite its newfound willingness to renegotiate the Iranian nuclear deal.

US-Saudi relations are drastically changing under the Biden Administration as evidenced by its promulgation of the so-called “Khashoggi ban” in response to American intelligence agencies determining that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was behind that dissident journalist’s brutal killing. This shows that the Biden Administration is playing hardball with the Kingdom’s future ruler, though there’s only so far that it’ll go in this respect. As it stands, the pro-Democrat members of the permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) that pull the President’s strings intend to diversify their country’s hitherto regional strategic dependence on Saudi Arabia in line with former President Obama’s vision by improving relations with Iran. Nevertheless, there’s only so far that they’ll go in this respect since it’s still important for them to retain some degree of “balance” so as not to push the Kingdom further into Russia and China’s arms.

On the one hand, the US wants to make it clear that the days of Saudi Arabia calling the shots are over. Washington will no longer allow its regional strategy to be led by Riyadh. This also explains Biden’s pragmatic recalibration of his country’s policy towards Yemen, which was also influenced by the desire to send a goodwill signal to Iran about Washington’s willingness to re-enter into negotiations on the nuclear deal. That arguably went against Saudi regional strategic interests, yet the Kingdom was powerless to stop its patron from implementing this policy reversal, at least for the time being. In parallel with this, American intelligence decided to punish some Saudis for Khashoggi’s murder, which was also intended to further erode the Kingdom’s already damaged reputation, and MBS’ personally. The tangential objective is to put pressure on MBS to comply with the US’ new regional policy instead of opposing it lest he risk the ever-present threat of a palace coup.

On the other hand, however, American strategists are aware that these moves will only encourage the Kingdom to intensify its growing relations with Russia and China. It already cooperates real closely with Moscow on energy issues (OPEC+) and Beijing on military (drones) and investment (Vision 2030) matters. Saudi Arabia also agreed to an arms deal with Russia a few years back during King Salman’s historic visit to Moscow which eventually saw the Eurasian Great Power delivering state-of-the-art rocket launchers to the Kingdom that presumably saw action during the ongoing War on Yemen. The US fears these two Great Power’s multipolar coordination in courting the Kingdom to their side in the New Cold War, especially as it relates to the possibility of Riyadh supporting Beijing’s plans for the “petroyuan”, so it knows that it’ll either have to hold back on playing hardball with MBS or move forward with replacing him in the worst-case scenario.

This “deep state”/geostrategic dynamic explains why American intelligence agencies publicly blamed MBS for Khashoggi’s killing yet Biden backed off from personally punishing him for this. It’s a “good cop/bad cop” type of play, but one which is being made in order to put Saudi Arabia back in place after it ran the former Trump Administration’s regional policy in partnership with its unofficial “Israeli” ally. Those two players stand in the way of the Biden (Obama 2.0) Administration’s risky gambit to restore “balance” to their country’s regional strategy by reaching out to Iran through “nuclear diplomacy” and other means, though all the while retaining pressure on the Islamic Republic as well as can be seen by Biden’s Syria strike last week. If clumsily executed, however, then the US might ultimately end up provoking a so-called “polar reorientation” whereby Saudi Arabia and “Israel” “jump ship” by siding with Russia and China in response to any meaningful US-Iranian rapprochement.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst

Tags: US, Saudi Arabia, Biden, MBS, Iran, China, Russia, Israel, Balancing.


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WHAT IS HAPPENING IN GEOPOLITICS? MIDDLE EAST:

DEFENCE ALLIANCE:

  • Israel is in talks with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates to establish a four-nation defence alliance, i24NEWS reported. The report comes amid the news that Washington and Tel Aviv are set to summon a strategic group to work on Iran’s nuclear agreement. Previously, some partners, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have advocated for negotiating an expanded deal with Tehran to include Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as stronger limits on Iran, but the Islamic Republic has rejected the suggestion.

SOURCE: SPUTNIK


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WHAT IS HAPPENING IN GEOPOLITICS? MIDDLE EAST:

SAUDI ARABIA/MILITARY AGREEMENT:

  • The Russian government called on its foreign and defence ministries to conduct negotiations with Saudi Arabia to conclude a new military cooperation agreement between the two countries.

SOURCE: MIDDLE EAST MONITOR


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MIDDLE EAST:

YEMEN:

  • President Joe Biden announced the United States was ending support for a grinding five-year Saudi-led military offensive in Yemen. The assurance is seen as part of an effort to persuade Saudi Arabia and other combatants to end the conflict overall. However, the ending of US support for the offensive will not affect any US operations against the Yemen-based al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP.

SOURCE: OUTLOOK INDIA


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MIDDLE EAST:

SAUDI ARABIA:

  • The US military is exploring new bases in Saudi Arabia amid rising tensions with Iran. They already had tested unloading and shipping cargo overland from Saudi Arabia’s port at Yanbu, a crucial terminal for oil pipelines in the kingdom.

SOURCE: TIMES OF ISRAEL


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ASIA PACIFIC:

CHINA:

  • Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, beat Russia, maintaining its ranking as China’s largest crude supplier in 2020. Russia came in second place as China oil supplier. China’s demand for oil remained strong last year despite the COVID-19 pandemic which caused reduced demand for fuel elsewhere. China is the world’s largest oil importer.

SOURCE: MIDDLE EAST MONITOR


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GCC Detente: Facts, Analysis And Forecasts

GCC Detente: Facts, Analysis And Forecasts

7 JANUARY 2021

GCC Detente: Facts, Analysis, And Forecasts

The unexpected detente between Qatar and its GCC partners saw the full restoration of political ties between them following the end of the over three-year-long blockade against the peninsular nation, but speculation remain about the future of their reconciliation considering the unresolved issue of Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and the UAE’s reported umbrage with Saudi Arabia’s decision to go through with all of this despite the uncertainties, though the arrangement will likely survive even if only because its optics serve every involved parties’ interests for the time being at least.

From “Blood Borders” Back To “Brotherhood”?

Analysts have scrambled to interpret the unexpected detente between Qatar and its GCC partners which just saw the restoration of political ties between them following the end of the over three-year-long blockade against the peninsular nation. I analyzed this dispute’s externally provoked divide-and-rule origins in a piece that I published in June 2017 about “The Machiavellian Plot to Provoke Saudi Arabia and Qatar into a ‘Blood Border’ War”, which claimed that the UAE exacerbated tensions between two of its main partners through a fake news hack in order to embroil them in an unnecessary internecine dispute that Abu Dhabi could then exploit in pursuit of its grand strategic ambition to become the Arab World’s next hegemon. Although no kinetic conflict of an international or internal nature ever materialized in either Qatar or Saudi Arabia, reports from last summer confirmed that the former scenario was in the cards until Trump inexplicably quashed it.

Little Sparta’s” Strategy

At any rate, the UAE succeeded in its goal of becoming the most important catalyst of geopolitical change in the Arab World in the years since after Saudi Arabia and Qatar were forced to focus on countering one another instead of leveraging their religious and media influence respectively to advance their regional agendas. Had that not happened, then each on their own might have been able to retain their corresponding edge over the UAE, let alone possibly joined forces to further sideline the overly ambitious state that US military forces once affectionately nicknamed “Little Sparta”. Instead of that happening, they were distracted with one another, which created the space for the UAE to flex to its leadership muscles. It proved its military prowess in the War on Yemen where it also cunningly undercut its Saudi “ally’s” strategy by cultivating South Yemeni separatists, while also brokering peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia as well as pioneering its own “peace” with “Israel”.

Saudi Pragmatism

The recent reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Qatar therefore goes against the UAE’s interests even though it succeeded in buying itself enough time to come out on top as the Arab World’s new unofficial hegemon and the Gulf’s main catalyst of geopolitical change. Nevertheless, the question on everyone’s mind is why Saudi Arabia decided to go through with this in the first place despite Qatar not complying with any of the prior 13 demands that were made of it at the onset of their crisis. The answer can’t be known for sure, but it might very well be that Riyadh realized that the costs of indefinitely continuing this ridiculous feud with Doha far outweigh the expected benefits which nowadays appear further from reach than ever. The Kingdom’s de facto defeat in its War on Yemen, low oil prices as a result of World War C, and its overall regional failures likely contributed to Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) deciding to throw in the towel.

The Biden Factor

MBS also fears that he’ll face unprecedented pressure from the US to further scale down his disastrous campaign of destruction in Yemen once Biden takes office (even if the incoming leader only “does the right thing for the wrong reasons”), to say nothing of how worried he is about the possibility that the President-Elect might rejoin the Iranian nuclear deal and subsequently enter into a rapprochement with the Islamic Republic. With these calculations in mind, it makes sense why MBS would go along with Trump’s legacy-solidifying effort to broker “peace” in the Mideast by agreeing to normalize relations with Qatar. The outgoing American leader earns another proverbial feather in his cap while the Saudi one can preempt his incoming American counterpart from weaponizing that dispute against him as part of a forthcoming comprehensive pressure campaign. The UAE, having lost control of events, was begrudgingly forced to go along with them.

Abu Dhabi’s Divide-And-Rule Games Aren’t Over…

It’s not all bad for Abu Dhabi, however, since this detente is mostly superficial as it’s thus far failed to resolve the most contentious issue of dispute: Qatar’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood (which is banned as a terrorist group by Bahrain, Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the UAE). Unless Qatar capitulates in this respect, which appears unlikely since a significant share of its soft power is derived from patronizing the organization and its many proxies across the region, then this will remain a divisive variable which could be exploited by the UAE to keep its two “partners” at arm’s length from one another. Furthermore, Doha hasn’t scaled down its relations with Ankara or Tehran which became supercharged as a result of the GCC Cold War, so it hasn’t actually done anything to earn Riyadh’s trust. This will make it all the easier for Abu Dhabi to manipulate the mostly superficial detente between them so that it doesn’t become substantive.

…Or Are They?

That said, one of the sides — be it Qatar or Saudi Arabia — could unilaterally submit to the other in the interests of “regional peace” or whatever else, thereby mitigating the impact of these two currently unresolved but related issues: Qatar’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood and its concomitant closeness with the group’s Turkish and Iranian partners (the latter ties of which are presently unclear but speculated to have improved in recent years). Considering the fact that Saudi Arabia is nowadays weaker than it’s ever been in recent memory, it seems likely that Riyadh might be the one to make “friendly” moves in this direction by simply asking Doha not to support Muslim Brotherhood movements within its borders even if it continues doing so elsewhere. Such a development, which already seems to be in the works behind the scenes given the vagueness of those two countries’ detente, would be extremely detrimental to Abu Dhabi’s divide-and-rule interests.

Keeping Up The Charade

More than likely, however, the GCC detente will probably persist because the optics serve everyone’s interests. Qatar and Saudi Arabia officially patched up their dispute and can now focus on much more important issues of individual and shared interest, the latter of which relates to dealing with the energy market’s global downturn. As for the UAE, it doesn’t want to risk being exposed as the regional spoiler that it’s been over the past few years by making too loud of a fuss about the unresolved status of Qatar’s ties with the Muslim Brotherhood or the possibility of Saudi Arabia looking the other way on this due to Riyadh’s recent weakness. It should be said, however, that this second-mentioned factor is largely due to the UAE’s Machiavellian machinations, so it would be a form of blowback if it results in Saudi Arabia passively accepting Qatar’s continued patronage of the Muslim Brotherhood despite Abu Dhabi’s intense aversion to that scenario.

Concluding Thoughts

The unexpected GCC detente caught many observers by surprise, but that’s mostly because few realized just how weak Saudi Arabia had recently become. It can no longer indefinitely remain hyper-focused on Qatar at the expense of its other interests after its regional strategy collapsed as a result of being dragged into this dispute and likely also the War on Yemen due to the UAE’s Machiavellian machinations. It’s unclear whether MBS realizes that he’s been played for a fool by his mentor Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ), or if this will ever even happen, but what’s important to pay attention to is how the Emirati leader responds to this new regional development. It’s the first time in several years that he’s lost control of events, and he certainly isn’t happy about it since he’d have preferred to have his countries’ two “partners” strategically bleed one another dry while his own continues rising in the aftermath. Whether he plays the spoiler or not, only time will tell.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst

Tags: GCC, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.


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MIDDLE EAST:

YEMEN:

  • Several explosions rocked Yemen’s Aden airport as new power-sharing government officials arrived from Saudi Arabia. The bombs killed roughly 22 people and injured dozens more. Saudi Arabia jumped to place blame on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, however, the group has not claimed responsibility as of late.

SOURCE: ODA LOOP


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MIDDLE EAST:

SAUDI ARABIA-QATAR:

  • Saudi Arabia opened its borders with Qatar for the first time in three years, a leap toward easing a dispute that split the energy-producing region and complicated US efforts to isolate Iran. The steps were pushed through as President Donald Trump prepares to leave office and his successor, Joe Biden, vows to renew diplomacy with Tehran.

SOURCE: HINDUSTAN TIMES


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MIDDLE EAST

SAUDI ARABIA/QATAR:

  • The media started hyping the possibility of reconciliation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia after US White House Adviser Jared Kushner visited Riyadh and Doha at the end of last month. Saudi Arabia cut their relations with Qatar in June 2017 after it failed to commit to a previous agreement stipulating that it stop supporting terrorist groups and refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of its neighbours, among other conditions.

SOURCE: AHRAM ORG


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